After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with inflation, with prices higher by around 25% since 2020. Unemployment has climbed to over 9% for those between 20 and 24 years of age. All these are signs of a K-shaped economic recovery, with a strong stock market supporting higher spending for those in the top 20% of incomes. The Fed faces a challenge with a weakening labor market but inflation near 3%; the odds of a December rate cut have fallen to 50%.

In terms of the equity market, we have also seen a K-shape. While overall market performance has been narrow (only 158 out of 500 stocks in the S&P are outperforming YTD), it has been the Mag 7, which have seen strong earnings growth, and very speculative stocks, fueled by retail traders both in and outside the U.S. For the former, this growth comes with a caveat that their once strong free cash flows are being siphoned off (and bolstered by debt) to fuel the massive capital expenditure required to build out AI infrastructure. For the latter, a form of tribalism has united retail speculators, who are treating stocks much like sports wagering, which has also seen massive volume growth. It is important to note that despite stocks favored by retail investors performing well this year that, since 2021, the average Robinhood account is estimated to have declined in value while the S&P 500 is up substantially.