In this episode, Will and Adam discuss the potential impact of the OBBBA on government debt and deficits, which could push U.S. debt above 200% of GDP, and how markets are reacting positively to the promise of fiscal stimulus and tax breaks. They also examine President Trump’s public pressure on the Fed to cut rates and the growing risk to Fed independence. The episode concludes with a look at the record Q2 market rebound, led by speculative growth and retail stocks, and the increasing influence of passive investing on market dynamics.

In this episode, Will and Adam unpack political drama in D.C. and the economic implications of the proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill,” focusing on its effects on taxes, spending, and rising deficits. They highlight the imbalance between public and private sector job growth and examine the market’s sharp rebound from April lows. Despite strong global returns, U.S. valuations remain elevated, with most gains concentrated in large-cap tech. The hosts argue that active management and diversification may finally have their moment after years of U.S. market dominance.

In this episode, Will and Adam sit down with political strategist and climate expert Kalee Kreider for an unfiltered discussion about markets, politics, and the financial challenges facing everyday Americans. They explore why investors often welcome political gridlock, how student debt continues to strain even high-earning families, and what’s really shaping election outcomes and market sentiment—all with a mix of candor, insight, and humor.

In this episode, Will and Adam examine the escalating U.S.–China tariff battle and its ripple effects on shipping, supply chains, and consumers already facing rising costs. They also touch on the financial strain of resumed student loan payments. In the second half, they discuss the market’s optimism amid expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, cautioning that such moves often signal recession risk. Despite broad market gains, they warn that high valuations and concentrated leadership among a few stocks leave little margin for error, emphasizing the importance of looking beyond the index for opportunity.

In this episode, Will and Adam break down the market turmoil surrounding “Liberation Day,” when sharp swings in stocks and bonds prompted the administration to pause most tariffs for 90 days. They examine who actually holds U.S. debt, the dramatic equity rebound that followed, and why high valuations temper optimism despite historic single-day gains. The hosts also explore early earnings signals from major banks, the frequent use of “uncertainty” in corporate commentary, and how trade and manufacturing policies may unintentionally harm America’s service surpluses and tourism sector.

In this episode, Will and Adam examine the market uncertainty ahead of “Liberation Day,” exploring the impact of tariffs, inflation expectations, and upcoming government debt refinancing on rates and confidence. They review a tough quarter for stocks, with the Magnificent Seven in a bear market and the S&P 500 down 10% from its highs. Despite elevated valuations and earnings expectations, value and non-U.S. stocks have held up, highlighting the benefits of diversification amid near-term economic and policy headwinds.

In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large trading partners like Canada. Another concern is spending cuts. We look past the headlines to see that cuts have not yet taken hold, though with 85% of job growth in 2024 attributable to government spending, we could be in for a volatile transition period as a result of the “detox” the administration is seeking.

In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity market strength. We also look at how the bond market (and the Federal Reserve) are responding, and how the continued on again/off again/on again tariff headlines are causing consternation to consumers and investors

With tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada may be more reticent to strike a deal, and what the bigger objectives may be. Is it all about oil and inflation, or are we looking at a 21st century version of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at China? We also break down how the Fed is assessing the situation.

After a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the increase in yields on longer bonds. Those higher yields are stressing consumers and businesses, not to mention grinding mortgage activity to a halt. We look at the implications of higher rates and compare some of the small business stress we are seeing in our community versus the strong jobs data being reported, which is influencing the Fed’s outlook for rate cuts.