Will and Adam discuss the challenges faced by the Fed as it sees financial conditions easing despite its efforts to restrict monetary policy. We also analyze the health of the consumer in the world of high interest rates, low savings rates, and increasing levels of debt. The unprecedented collapse in money supply growth, and the recent spike in velocity, are addressed as well.

We review a challenging 2022, capped off by a December to forget for those looking for a Santa rally. The causes (Fed policy, rampant retail speculation) and effects (multiple compression, sizable capital losses) are analyzed, along with some perspective on how we are preparing for 2023.

We give an enthusiastic meh to 2022, an anomalous year in so many ways: stocks and bonds both lower, the Fed raising rates at a historic pace, and geopolitical turmoil. We also delve into the Fed’s inflation versus recession conundrum, the consequences of capital once again having a cost, and what 2023 may hold based on our top-down process.

We review the tumult in the crypto markets in the wake of FTX’s demise. The markets resilience in the face of crypto, geopolitical, and inflation headwinds is another topic of discussion. We also look at the technical indicators pointing toward a recession here in the U.S., as well as the market implications of a Fed pivot.

In the wake of the release of the Fed’s minutes, we discuss relevant acronyms (FIFA, NATO, FUBAR) as well as a few four-letter words the hawkish comments elicited from markets. We compare the minutes to the tenor of the press conference, the likely paths inflation might follow, and the implications for equity valuations and earning.

Does the market have one? We discuss the recent signs of market life despite what seems like the Fed’s desire to raise rates no matter the collateral damage. We also explore the parody that is risk parity, and the danger it poses to pension funds.