In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock to global oil markets, where prices surged dramatically before partially retracing. Adam and Will explore how disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes could tighten global supply, increase inflation pressure, and complicate monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve.

After a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index stability and individual-stock carnage is the central thread of the episode.

We look at the eventful start to 2026 and try to put some context around potential market impacts. Geopolitically, we saw the renewed vigor of the Monroe Doctrine in full force with U.S. action against Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Whether stemming the flow of drugs or increasing the supply of oil was the primary factor is undetermined, though decades of underinvestment in infrastructure make any meaningful near-term effect on oil supply unlikely; lower oil prices have been one of the few things keeping inflation in check.

We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown. Setting that aside, since 2021, wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for food, shelter, and services, though we can count our blessings that at least alcohol prices have not increased as much…

After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent employment data has been lackluster, to put it mildly, which is forcing the Fed’s hand as it relates to continued cuts.

After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with inflation, with prices higher by around 25% since 2020. Unemployment has climbed to over 9% for those between 20 and 24 years of age. All these are signs of a K-shaped economic recovery, with a strong stock market supporting higher spending for those in the top 20% of incomes. The Fed faces a challenge with a weakening labor market but inflation near 3%; the odds of a December rate cut have fallen to 50%.

In this episode, Will and Adam highlight the importance of value and discipline amid a market dominated by speculation and high valuations. They discuss opportunities in quality small and mid-cap stocks, challenges in housing affordability, and whether the Fed can restore balance through rate cuts or yield curve control.

In this episode, Will and Adam examine the cooling job market and its pressure on the Fed to cut rates. They discuss slowing job growth, falling labor participation, and AI’s growing impact on employment. With multiple rate cuts likely ahead, they weigh the potential market upside if a recession is avoided versus the risks if one occurs. The hosts also explore why long-term yields may stay elevated despite Fed action, citing tariffs, rising government debt, and growing tension over monetary policy.

In this episode, Will and Adam discuss Robert Reich’s comparison of today’s economy to the Gilded Age, highlighting rising wealth inequality, disruptive technology, and the government’s growing role in business. They examine shifting investor sentiment toward AI, the resurgence of speculative stocks, and the Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and political pressure. The hosts close by stressing the importance of discipline and long-term focus amid the growing “gamification” of investing.

In this episode, Will and Adam review Q2 earnings, noting that results have kept markets near record highs despite concerns about shrinking free cash flow among major tech firms due to massive AI-related spending. They explore how only the largest companies have outpaced inflation, discuss shifts in inflation measurement and the Fed’s potential move away from its 2% target, and connect weak job data to the rise of AI-driven change. The episode concludes with a warning about the surge in speculative trading and record inflows into funds like the Ark Innovation ETF.