We provide predictions on the Super Bowl, which should be heeded, given Will’s accurate NASDAQ premonition; we discuss the drawdown and our analysis on the reasons for it. We also address the bifurcation between the performance of the “average” stock and the index, as well as the likelihood and consequences of the Fed meeting its stated rate rise regime.
We discuss the Fed’s hawkish pivot and whether it is rooted in reality or an effort to use its words to convince the market it is serious about inflation. We also look back to prior tightening cycles as a frame of reference for potential equity market weakness, as well as exploring the omicron variant’s effect on society, supply chains, and the economy more broadly.
Will and Adam discuss the market’s reaction to the last big event of the year, i.e., the Fed’s December meeting. We also try to discern what its stance tells us about the prospects for growth, inflation, and the omicron variant. We also explore the structural reasons inflation might decline despite the shrinking pool of labor, as well as the widening chasm between the performance of the stock market and that of the individual stocks of which it is comprised.
After a brief hiatus due to technical difficulties, Will and Adam return to a market fraught with the same. We explore how index performance masks the performance of the average stock, not to mention how the U.S. has diverged from every other market. We also examine the Fed’s shift from its transitory narrative, debate whether proposed tapering is likely bark or bite, and end with an analysis of the Biden administration’s curiously active November, especially against the backdrop of the Omicron variant.
With football mania sweeping Cincinnati, we talk about some other manias that are helping lift markets to all-time highs. We also juxtapose the most recent monetary policy decisions of the Fed and Bank of England and how each reflects a slightly variant view of the variant. Finally, we head down the rabbit hole to talk COVID, cryptocurrencies, and oil.
We return with a new format but provide updates on some old favorites: inflation, complacency, and valuation. We also explore how the “sky is falling” narrative is changing how investors allocate capital, especially in the energy sector, why legacy producers in the Middle East are okay with the Mad Max scarcity scenario, and how U.S. producers are the Jekyll and Hyde that moodily swing prices. Stay tuned until the full time whistle, when Will gives the team talk on speculating with leverage.