After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent employment data has been lackluster, to put it mildly, which is forcing the Fed’s hand as it relates to continued cuts.

After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with inflation, with prices higher by around 25% since 2020. Unemployment has climbed to over 9% for those between 20 and 24 years of age. All these are signs of a K-shaped economic recovery, with a strong stock market supporting higher spending for those in the top 20% of incomes. The Fed faces a challenge with a weakening labor market but inflation near 3%; the odds of a December rate cut have fallen to 50%.

In this episode, Will and Adam highlight the importance of value and discipline amid a market dominated by speculation and high valuations. They discuss opportunities in quality small and mid-cap stocks, challenges in housing affordability, and whether the Fed can restore balance through rate cuts or yield curve control.

In this episode, Will and Adam examine the cooling job market and its pressure on the Fed to cut rates. They discuss slowing job growth, falling labor participation, and AI’s growing impact on employment. With multiple rate cuts likely ahead, they weigh the potential market upside if a recession is avoided versus the risks if one occurs. The hosts also explore why long-term yields may stay elevated despite Fed action, citing tariffs, rising government debt, and growing tension over monetary policy.

In this episode, Will and Adam discuss Robert Reich’s comparison of today’s economy to the Gilded Age, highlighting rising wealth inequality, disruptive technology, and the government’s growing role in business. They examine shifting investor sentiment toward AI, the resurgence of speculative stocks, and the Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and political pressure. The hosts close by stressing the importance of discipline and long-term focus amid the growing “gamification” of investing.

In this episode, Will and Adam review Q2 earnings, noting that results have kept markets near record highs despite concerns about shrinking free cash flow among major tech firms due to massive AI-related spending. They explore how only the largest companies have outpaced inflation, discuss shifts in inflation measurement and the Fed’s potential move away from its 2% target, and connect weak job data to the rise of AI-driven change. The episode concludes with a warning about the surge in speculative trading and record inflows into funds like the Ark Innovation ETF.

In this episode, Will and Adam discuss the potential impact of the OBBBA on government debt and deficits, which could push U.S. debt above 200% of GDP, and how markets are reacting positively to the promise of fiscal stimulus and tax breaks. They also examine President Trump’s public pressure on the Fed to cut rates and the growing risk to Fed independence. The episode concludes with a look at the record Q2 market rebound, led by speculative growth and retail stocks, and the increasing influence of passive investing on market dynamics.

In this episode, Will and Adam unpack political drama in D.C. and the economic implications of the proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill,” focusing on its effects on taxes, spending, and rising deficits. They highlight the imbalance between public and private sector job growth and examine the market’s sharp rebound from April lows. Despite strong global returns, U.S. valuations remain elevated, with most gains concentrated in large-cap tech. The hosts argue that active management and diversification may finally have their moment after years of U.S. market dominance.

In this episode, Will and Adam sit down with political strategist and climate expert Kalee Kreider for an unfiltered discussion about markets, politics, and the financial challenges facing everyday Americans. They explore why investors often welcome political gridlock, how student debt continues to strain even high-earning families, and what’s really shaping election outcomes and market sentiment—all with a mix of candor, insight, and humor.

In this episode, Will and Adam examine the escalating U.S.–China tariff battle and its ripple effects on shipping, supply chains, and consumers already facing rising costs. They also touch on the financial strain of resumed student loan payments. In the second half, they discuss the market’s optimism amid expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, cautioning that such moves often signal recession risk. Despite broad market gains, they warn that high valuations and concentrated leadership among a few stocks leave little margin for error, emphasizing the importance of looking beyond the index for opportunity.