Tea and Crumpets
T&C | Episode 53: Head for the Hills?
We discuss the continuing game of chicken being played over the debt ceiling, and why any ultimate resolution to increase the government’s borrowing ability is a negative for bond yields and equities. Also, you cannot have a podcast in 2023 without talking about AI, and we explore its impact on equity market returns so far this year (positive) as well the murkier longer-term impact on things like inflation and unemployment.
T&C | Episode 52: Musical Electric Chairs
Technology investors keep dancing as the NASDAQ enters a bull market. We compare the performance of the largest names in the index versus the rest and evaluate the reasons why the performance of the average stock has been so lackluster. We also delve into the seemingly irreconcilable difference between the outlook for earnings and interest rates, as well as the ongoing fallout higher rates have caused for the banking industry. We close with our opinion on the market’s relative upside versus downside based on the positioning of both retail investors and institutional quant funds.
T&C | Episode 51: Strong Conviction Wile E. Coyote
We delve deeply into pun-ditry, as well as a continued post-mortem of Silicon Valley Bank. Will casts doubts over Adam’s ability to be a bond guy (or girl), and they also discuss the Fed’s strong conviction, Wile E. Coyote-style stretching of the economic rubber band and the potential implications of its snap back in the event the Fed is forced to pivot.
T&C | Episode 50: Banking, From Assyria to Silicon Valley
Will and Adam provide an update on the continued fallout in the banking sector, including what it means for consumers and markets. The surprising rebound in technology stocks despite a nascent banking crisis is also analyzed and compared to what we experienced during the financial crisis. We also debate what the opposite of inverted is and why it is important to our outlook for the economy. For even more, click here to read Will’s comments on Silicon Valley Bank in Barron’s.
T&C | Episode 48: The New Nas-quack
We look at the self-proclaimed new Nasdaq, a.k.a., Ark, as emblematic of the ferocious return of speculation in 2023. We also look at the behavior of meme stock speculators and debate the role the Fed may or may not in fomenting speculation as it (and we) debate how restrictive policy is versus how restrictive it needs to be.
T&C | Episode 47: Molotov Policy
Will and Adam discuss the challenges faced by the Fed as it sees financial conditions easing despite its efforts to restrict monetary policy. We also analyze the health of the consumer in the world of high interest rates, low savings rates, and increasing levels of debt. The unprecedented collapse in money supply growth, and the recent spike in velocity, are addressed as well.
READY TO TALK?