We give an enthusiastic meh to 2022, an anomalous year in so many ways: stocks and bonds both lower, the Fed raising rates at a historic pace, and geopolitical turmoil. We also delve into the Fed’s inflation versus recession conundrum, the consequences of capital once again having a cost, and what 2023 may hold based on our top-down process.
We review the tumult in the crypto markets in the wake of FTX’s demise. The markets resilience in the face of crypto, geopolitical, and inflation headwinds is another topic of discussion. We also look at the technical indicators pointing toward a recession here in the U.S., as well as the market implications of a Fed pivot.
In the wake of the release of the Fed’s minutes, we discuss relevant acronyms (FIFA, NATO, FUBAR) as well as a few four-letter words the hawkish comments elicited from markets. We compare the minutes to the tenor of the press conference, the likely paths inflation might follow, and the implications for equity valuations and earning.
Does the market have one? We discuss the recent signs of market life despite what seems like the Fed’s desire to raise rates no matter the collateral damage. We also explore the parody that is risk parity, and the danger it poses to pension funds.
We look at the historically woeful start to 2022 for both stocks and bonds and explain why these coinciding declines are causing stress in the financial system, as well for investors. We also analyze the efficacy of the Fed’s toolkit to fight inflation and how rate increases typically flow through the economy....
Are recent comments by the Fed inspiring or perspiring? We discuss the sub-optimal setup for the European Central Bank, what is helping (and hurting) the case for a reversion to sub-2% inflation domestically, and what it means for markets over the near- and medium-term. Also, public service announcements on preventative health care and meme stocks.
We look at the situation facing the Fed as the market anxiously awaits comments from Jackson Hole. With student debt forgiveness and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act renewing fiscal stimulus, can the Fed engineer a soft landing? We also analyze the divergence between the favorable technical setup versus stretched valuations. Finally, we recap the most recent round of meme stock mania which, thankfully, we watched from the sidelines.
In a market that makes about as much sense as August having an extra day, we examine the reasons for the strong equity returns in July and the incongruent views the market currently has on rates versus earnings expectations. We also discuss the squeeze consumers are feeling as savings rates decline and credit card debt expands.
After a brief hiatus, Will and Adam return to talk about the market’s welcome recent rebound. Is it a head fake or will the bad news is good news narrative continue? Higher inflation and restrictive Fed policy have the potential to head butt investors, but the technical set-up remains favorable.
Are equity markets still in the danger zone? Join Will, Adam, and Kenny Loggins (well, two of the three) as they discuss the brief bear market, what is fueling the recent rebound, and whether we are in for more turbulence. Can the Fed engineer a soft landing, or will it crash and burn? Be our wingman as we explore these topics and more.
