We are privileged to work with insightful people here at Formidable, and during a recent call one of our colleagues mentioned how the current market reminds him of Jenga. Accordingly, in the spirit of family vacation rainy day activities, we will use Jenga (and a few other games) as inspiration this quarter.
We wish Formidable a happy 11th birthday, though the more eccentric among us may say “get well soon”, instead. Regardless, we look back on our approach to college planning and the merits of trade schools in the era of AI. We also examine AI’s broader implications for inflation, wages, and stocks, both those that area direct beneficiaries (like the Magnificent Seven) and those that have, so far, been left behind from a performance perspective, where we see opportunity.
Will and Adam review the new Bearcats flavored Grippo chips, and compare them to the Fed’s approach on inflation. We take a look at what the lack of movement in oil prices is telling us about inflation and the economy, and how higher interest rates are (or, more accurately, are not) constricting some measures of financial conditions.
We discuss the fluid situation in the Middle East, its impact on oil, and, ultimately, its importance as a key stumbling block on the Fed’s path to 2% inflation. The changing expectations regarding Fed rate cuts and how those should (theoretically) affect valuations for stocks are also key topics, as are some of the recent divergences in the historical relationships between things like gold and real rates.
With the greater Cincinnati area in close proximity to the path of the solar eclipse, we look to the sky for inspiration for this quarter’s update and outlook.
Will and Adam discuss the potential for broader equity market participation, as well as the strange dynamics affecting the smaller cap indices. We also deconstruct the latest Fed minutes, and what the Fed’s changing stance on inflation may mean for interest rates, stocks, risk, and housing. Finally, we explore whether one can forge their own signature, if plant-based mashed potatoes is redundant, and the merits of Kenny Rogers’ “good food quickly” approach to chicken.
In episode 66, Will and Adam discuss the Fed’s shifting stance on its inflation target and the implications for consumers and markets. We also examine the diverging fortunes of the Magnificent Seven and compare today’s market conditions with those of the early 2022 peak as well as the 2000 peak.
“In case you haven’t noticed it, and judging by the attendance, you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.” - Harry Doyle in Major League.
We welcome back special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. With November fast approaching, we get her take on the candidates, what states might determine the outcome, and why “double haters” may be the deciding factor. We also evaluate the implications of the outcome in terms of both foreign and domestic policy. Finally, we take a look at a few under-the-radar Supreme Court cases with significant implications for the functioning of the Federal bureaucracy in 2024 and beyond.
In episode 64, Will and Adam discuss the winnowing of the Magnificent Seven to somewhere between three and four, and the exorbitant valuations on the shrinking number of winners. We also look at the conundrum faced by businesses dealing with pushback from consumers on rising prices while at the same time increasing demands (not to mention government mandates) on wages.
