Will and Adam discuss the challenges faced by the Fed as it sees financial conditions easing despite its efforts to restrict monetary policy. We also analyze the health of the consumer in the world of high interest rates, low savings rates, and increasing levels of debt. The unprecedented collapse in money supply growth, and the recent spike in velocity, are addressed as well.
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We are going to break this month’s update into two separate pieces. First, we will recap a dismal 2022. Then, we will provide our outlook for 2023, and in some ways, beyond. If you want a little more color, we encourage you to listen to our most recent podcast.
We review a challenging 2022, capped off by a December to forget for those looking for a Santa rally. The causes (Fed policy, rampant retail speculation) and effects (multiple compression, sizable capital losses) are analyzed, along with some perspective on how we are preparing for 2023.
We give an enthusiastic meh to 2022, an anomalous year in so many ways: stocks and bonds both lower, the Fed raising rates at a historic pace, and geopolitical turmoil. We also delve into the Fed’s inflation versus recession conundrum, the consequences of capital once again having a cost, and what 2023 may hold based on our top-down process.
In a pleasant surprise, the U.S. made it to the knockout stages of the World Cup. However, as widely predicted, they failed it make it any further. While winning the World Cup would have been truly extraordinary, in the history of American sports, nothing is likely to top the legendary 1980 hockey victory that inspired the titular quote. Such a victory was truly miraculous, at least according to the Oxford Languages dictionary, which defines a miracle as, “a highly improbable or extraordinary event, development, or accomplishment that brings very welcome consequences.” As an aside, we were shocked to learn there is not a Hallmark Christmas movie with this title, wherein “Miracles” is either a town or a dog.
Formidable Asset Management (“Formidable”) has closely followed Flux Power Holdings (NASDAQ: FLUX) as part of our fundamental research
We review the tumult in the crypto markets in the wake of FTX’s demise. The markets resilience in the face of crypto, geopolitical, and inflation headwinds is another topic of discussion. We also look at the technical indicators pointing toward a recession here in the U.S., as well as the market implications of a Fed pivot.
Yes, this is the Hank Williams, Junior catchphrase from the erstwhile intro to Monday Night football (American Style) but we are going to be looking at markets through the lens of association football, specifically the World Cup, which kicks off in a few weeks. Yes, this event is typically played in the summer, but since it is being played in Qatar this year for reasons that certainly have nothing to do with unethical behavior on the part of soccer’s governing body, FIFA, let’s get ready for some football, I mean soccer.
In the wake of the release of the Fed’s minutes, we discuss relevant acronyms (FIFA, NATO, FUBAR) as well as a few four-letter words the hawkish comments elicited from markets. We compare the minutes to the tenor of the press conference, the likely paths inflation might follow, and the implications for equity valuations and earning.
Does the market have one? We discuss the recent signs of market life despite what seems like the Fed’s desire to raise rates no matter the collateral damage. We also explore the parody that is risk parity, and the danger it poses to pension funds.