We discuss the continuing game of chicken being played over the debt ceiling, and why any ultimate resolution to increase the government’s borrowing ability is a negative for bond yields and equities. Also, you cannot have a podcast in 2023 without talking about AI, and we explore its impact on equity market returns so far this year (positive) as well the murkier longer-term impact on things like inflation and unemployment.
Key Takeaways • The second largest bank failure in U.S. history was not enough to take stock indexes lower in April. • A smaller and smaller cohort of megacap stocks continues to account for almost all of the market’s returns. • Current expectations for the paths of earnings and interest rates are almost certainly mutually exclusive yet serve as the foundation on which index investors are relying.
Technology investors keep dancing as the NASDAQ enters a bull market. We compare the performance of the largest names in the index versus the rest and evaluate the reasons why the performance of the average stock has been so lackluster. We also delve into the seemingly irreconcilable difference between the outlook for earnings and interest rates, as well as the ongoing fallout higher rates have caused for the banking industry. We close with our opinion on the market’s relative upside versus downside based on the positioning of both retail investors and institutional quant funds.
Few things are less pleasant than doing your taxes. Whether you are a DIYer or pay an accountant, going through the toil and trouble of compiling tax information is never fun.
We delve deeply into pun-ditry, as well as a continued post-mortem of Silicon Valley Bank. Will casts doubts over Adam’s ability to be a bond guy (or girl), and they also discuss the Fed’s strong conviction, Wile E. Coyote-style stretching of the economic rubber band and the potential implications of its snap back in the event the Fed is forced to pivot.
Key Takeaways • Not even a banking panic could keep the S&P 500 from posting gains for March and Q1. • Renewed hopes for a Fed pivot sent investors flocking to the perceived safety of megacap tech stocks, with the NASDAQ triumphantly entering an official bull market. • However, just as Napoleon’s return from exile was short-lived, we believe the euphoria of a new bull market will be fleeting, though opportunities will be found in less conventional parts of the market.
Read Will's Commentary - Barrons: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is planning to announce its decision on the sale of Silicon Valley Bank this weekend, Barron’s Advisor has learned. A person familiar with the FDIC’s plans indicates that the banking regulator hopes to present a resolution of the auction over the weekend.
Will and Adam provide an update on the continued fallout in the banking sector, including what it means for consumers and markets. The surprising rebound in technology stocks despite a nascent banking crisis is also analyzed and compared to what we experienced during the financial crisis. We also debate what the opposite of inverted is and why it is important to our outlook for the economy. For even more, click here to read Will’s comments on Silicon Valley Bank in Barron’s.
I recently accompanied my son’s class on a field trip to something called the Exploreum. As you may have heard, good things don’t end with “eum”. Although certain facets of the trip were quasi-educational, I did take umbrage at their comparison of “playing the stock market” to casinos and the lottery:
Formidable was founded in 2013 as a wealth management firm. Our CEO and founder, Will Brown, wanted to bring a differentiated, active approach to the RIA space. When developing client portfolios, we were unsatisfied with solutions we saw in the market, especially in the alternatives space.
