Podcast

T&C | Episode 29: Fedi Mind Trick

2022-01-14T16:01:43+00:00

We discuss the Fed’s hawkish pivot and whether it is rooted in reality or an effort to use its words to convince the market it is serious about inflation. We also look back to prior tightening cycles as a frame of reference for potential equity market weakness, as well as exploring the omicron variant’s effect on society, supply chains, and the economy more broadly.

T&C | Episode 29: Fedi Mind Trick2022-01-14T16:01:43+00:00

T&C | Episode 28: Transitory Intransigence

2021-12-17T17:21:06+00:00

Will and Adam discuss the market’s reaction to the last big event of the year, i.e., the Fed’s December meeting. We also try to discern what its stance tells us about the prospects for growth, inflation, and the omicron variant. We also explore the structural reasons inflation might decline despite the shrinking pool of labor, as well as the widening chasm between the performance of the stock market and that of the individual stocks of which it is comprised.

T&C | Episode 28: Transitory Intransigence2021-12-17T17:21:06+00:00

T&C | Episode 27: Technical Difficulties

2021-12-08T14:51:25+00:00

After a brief hiatus due to technical difficulties, Will and Adam return to a market fraught with the same. We explore how index performance masks the performance of the average stock, not to mention how the U.S. has diverged from every other market. We also examine the Fed’s shift from its transitory narrative, debate whether proposed tapering is likely bark or bite, and end with an analysis of the Biden administration’s curiously active November, especially against the backdrop of the Omicron variant.

T&C | Episode 27: Technical Difficulties2021-12-08T14:51:25+00:00

T&C | Episode 26: Go Bearcats?

2021-11-08T14:36:04+00:00

With football mania sweeping Cincinnati, we talk about some other manias that are helping lift markets to all-time highs. We also juxtapose the most recent monetary policy decisions of the Fed and Bank of England and how each reflects a slightly variant view of the variant. Finally, we head down the rabbit hole to talk COVID, cryptocurrencies, and oil.

T&C | Episode 26: Go Bearcats?2021-11-08T14:36:04+00:00

T&C | Episode 25: Jekyll and Hyde, and Mad Max, and Chicken Little

2021-11-08T14:45:25+00:00

We return with a new format but provide updates on some old favorites: inflation, complacency, and valuation. We also explore how the “sky is falling” narrative is changing how investors allocate capital, especially in the energy sector, why legacy producers in the Middle East are okay with the Mad Max scarcity scenario, and how U.S. producers are the Jekyll and Hyde that moodily swing prices. Stay tuned until the full time whistle, when Will gives the team talk on speculating with leverage.

T&C | Episode 25: Jekyll and Hyde, and Mad Max, and Chicken Little2021-11-08T14:45:25+00:00

T&C | Episode 23: There’s Always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser

2021-09-03T18:55:35+00:00

We explore the cacophony emanating from the loudest voices in the room on things like meme stocks and the delta variant, and provide our own measured analysis to separate hyperbole from reality. We also explore the jaws opening between economic data and interest rates, the Fed’s conundrum, and stretched valuations for the most speculative stocks.

T&C | Episode 23: There’s Always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser2021-09-03T18:55:35+00:00

T&C | Episode 22: Carnival Barkers

2021-08-05T19:36:50+00:00

We explore the cacophony emanating from the loudest voices in the room on things like meme stocks and the delta variant, and provide our own measured analysis to separate hyperbole from reality. We also explore the jaws opening between economic data and interest rates, the Fed’s conundrum, and stretched valuations for the most speculative stocks.

T&C | Episode 22: Carnival Barkers2021-08-05T19:36:50+00:00

T&C | Episode 21: Flashing is good?

2021-07-23T13:27:53+00:00

We ignore the flashing red light on the microphone, just like markets have been ignoring any number of warning signs. We discuss the bond market (or lack thereof), explore the conflicting signals sent by treasury yields, and the explore the inexplicable appetite for the currently misnamed high-yield debt. The bifurcation of equity returns between megacap and the rest is discussed, as are the potential effects of the delta variant on supply chains. We also discover Will and Adam were, unsurprisingly, both in high school Latin clubs. Caveat emptor.

T&C | Episode 21: Flashing is good?2021-07-23T13:27:53+00:00

T&C | Episode 20: Bark Twice if You’re in Milwaukee

2021-07-07T13:18:13+00:00

We bark again about the continued mania in meme stocks, as well as delve into the inflationary pressures building in certain parts of the economy. The massive flows into equities and misnamed “high yield” debt are also topics of conversation, as are looking to the late 1940s and late 1960s as potential playbooks for what might be a choppy remainder of the year.

T&C | Episode 20: Bark Twice if You’re in Milwaukee2021-07-07T13:18:13+00:00

T&C | Episode 19: A Frugal Pair/Lumber vs. Timber/Dilution vs. Delusion

2021-06-15T20:59:11+00:00

Come aboard. We’re expecting you… We make another run after a technology glitch to discuss the Love Boat’s star-crossed investors, the knife-sharpening industry, and the strange dichotomy between market complacency as a whole versus the mania around retail trading in meme stocks. From there, we delve into a discussion of inflation as reflected in things like lumber and labor. We then debate how a trade can be both right and wrong concurrently and why capital allocation matters for companies in secular decline.

T&C | Episode 19: A Frugal Pair/Lumber vs. Timber/Dilution vs. Delusion2021-06-15T20:59:11+00:00