We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean.
We recap the historically strong year-to-date performance of equities and compare Q3 versus the first half of the year. We also delve into the potential market implications of the upcoming presidential elections as well as the ongoing (and escalating) conflict in the Middle East.
Special guest Kalee Kreider joins us to discuss the recent presidential debate, its impact on the November election, and all things political. We also explore the impact of broad trends like inflation and AI on the election, the economy, and markets.
Will and Adam discuss the large downward revision in job creation and analyze its causes and implications. With the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, they review its current stance on interest rates versus market expectations, as well as the divergent paths the market has historically taken around rate cutting cycles.
Will and Adam return to provide insight on recent market tumult. We look at the causes (recession concerns, Japanese bank policy) and the effects (sharp decline, quick rebound, spike in volatility). We compare what is normal about today’s environment versus the anomalies that cause us some concern.
We wish Formidable a happy 11th birthday, though the more eccentric among us may say “get well soon”, instead. Regardless, we look back on our approach to college planning and the merits of trade schools in the era of AI. We also examine AI’s broader implications for inflation, wages, and stocks, both those that area direct beneficiaries (like the Magnificent Seven) and those that have, so far, been left behind from a performance perspective, where we see opportunity.
Will and Adam review the new Bearcats flavored Grippo chips, and compare them to the Fed’s approach on inflation. We take a look at what the lack of movement in oil prices is telling us about inflation and the economy, and how higher interest rates are (or, more accurately, are not) constricting some measures of financial conditions.
We discuss the fluid situation in the Middle East, its impact on oil, and, ultimately, its importance as a key stumbling block on the Fed’s path to 2% inflation. The changing expectations regarding Fed rate cuts and how those should (theoretically) affect valuations for stocks are also key topics, as are some of the recent divergences in the historical relationships between things like gold and real rates.
Will and Adam discuss the potential for broader equity market participation, as well as the strange dynamics affecting the smaller cap indices. We also deconstruct the latest Fed minutes, and what the Fed’s changing stance on inflation may mean for interest rates, stocks, risk, and housing. Finally, we explore whether one can forge their own signature, if plant-based mashed potatoes is redundant, and the merits of Kenny Rogers’ “good food quickly” approach to chicken.
In episode 66, Will and Adam discuss the Fed’s shifting stance on its inflation target and the implications for consumers and markets. We also examine the diverging fortunes of the Magnificent Seven and compare today’s market conditions with those of the early 2022 peak as well as the 2000 peak.
