T&C | Episode: Saul Grippo


Will and Adam review the new Bearcats flavored Grippo chips, and compare them to the Fed’s approach on inflation. We take a look at what the lack of movement in oil prices is telling us about inflation and the economy, and how higher interest rates are (or, more accurately, are not) constricting some measures of financial conditions.

T&C | Episode: Saul Grippo2024-05-24T15:18:21+00:00

T&C | Episode: There’s No Way Wainscott Will Approve This Title


We discuss the fluid situation in the Middle East, its impact on oil, and, ultimately, its importance as a key stumbling block on the Fed’s path to 2% inflation. The changing expectations regarding Fed rate cuts and how those should (theoretically) affect valuations for stocks are also key topics, as are some of the recent divergences in the historical relationships between things like gold and real rates.

T&C | Episode: There’s No Way Wainscott Will Approve This Title2024-04-22T14:46:06+00:00

T&C | Episode: Top Men


Will and Adam discuss the potential for broader equity market participation, as well as the strange dynamics affecting the smaller cap indices. We also deconstruct the latest Fed minutes, and what the Fed’s changing stance on inflation may mean for interest rates, stocks, risk, and housing. Finally, we explore whether one can forge their own signature, if plant-based mashed potatoes is redundant, and the merits of Kenny Rogers’ “good food quickly” approach to chicken.

T&C | Episode: Top Men2024-04-01T16:54:18+00:00

T&C | Episode: Mugabe Shack


In episode 66, Will and Adam discuss the Fed’s shifting stance on its inflation target and the implications for consumers and markets. We also examine the diverging fortunes of the Magnificent Seven and compare today’s market conditions with those of the early 2022 peak as well as the 2000 peak.

T&C | Episode: Mugabe Shack2024-03-12T15:32:13+00:00

T&C | Episode: I Choo-Choo-Choose You


We welcome back special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. With November fast approaching, we get her take on the candidates, what states might determine the outcome, and why “double haters” may be the deciding factor. We also evaluate the implications of the outcome in terms of both foreign and domestic policy. Finally, we take a look at a few under-the-radar Supreme Court cases with significant implications for the functioning of the Federal bureaucracy in 2024 and beyond.

T&C | Episode: I Choo-Choo-Choose You2024-02-20T14:24:37+00:00

T&C | Episode: Top Hats and Hash Browns


In episode 64, Will and Adam discuss the winnowing of the Magnificent Seven to somewhere between three and four, and the exorbitant valuations on the shrinking number of winners. We also look at the conundrum faced by businesses dealing with pushback from consumers on rising prices while at the same time increasing demands (not to mention government mandates) on wages.

T&C | Episode: Top Hats and Hash Browns2024-02-20T14:26:26+00:00

T&C | Episode: Nvidiots


Will and Adam return from a hiatus with the S&P 500 at an all-time high. They recap what drove returns in 2023 (index flows, zero-day options, the Magnificent Seven) and what expectations are baked into valuations at current levels (above-average earnings growth and six Fed rate cuts). They also juxtapose the divergent growth expectations the low price of oil seems to be indicating in spite of elevated geopolitical tensions.

T&C | Episode: Nvidiots2024-01-25T20:00:03+00:00

T&C | Episode: Passive Observer


We revisit the risks associated with passive investing as the Magnificent Seven stocks become even more unmoored from the rest of the S&P 500. We also analyze the likelihood of the Fed engineering a soft landing, why the market may have celebrated a win on inflation too early, and how we are trying to navigate through this challenging environment.

T&C | Episode: Passive Observer2023-11-22T15:38:20+00:00

T&C | Episode: Unionized Baristas


We talk about the ongoing shift in labor market dynamics and its implications for inflation going forward, which could be “higher-er for longer-er”. The market’s recent rebound, fueled by hopes of a soft landing and a bounce in the most shorted stocks, is also discussed. We also look at concentration of the index in a handful of stocks and compare recent earnings for some of the tech titans to the rosy projections for next year.

T&C | Episode: Unionized Baristas2023-11-09T15:27:54+00:00

T&C | Episode: Backward Pants


Will and Adam provide their perspective on the market impact of events in Israel and Gaza, which come at a perilous time from a market perspective with yields reaching psychologically important levels. We also discuss how flows into passive funds have had an outsized impact on the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and juxtapose their performance (and valuation) versus the rest of the market. Finally, we look at some real-time data on what is happening for economic canaries like shipping and small business.

T&C | Episode: Backward Pants2023-10-30T16:58:12+00:00