With football mania sweeping Cincinnati, we talk about some other manias that are helping lift markets to all-time highs. We also juxtapose the most recent monetary policy decisions of the Fed and Bank of England and how each reflects a slightly variant view of the variant. Finally, we head down the rabbit hole to talk COVID, cryptocurrencies, and oil.
We return with a new format but provide updates on some old favorites: inflation, complacency, and valuation. We also explore how the “sky is falling” narrative is changing how investors allocate capital, especially in the energy sector, why legacy producers in the Middle East are okay with the Mad Max scarcity scenario, and how U.S. producers are the Jekyll and Hyde that moodily swing prices. Stay tuned until the full time whistle, when Will gives the team talk on speculating with leverage.
We explore the cacophony emanating from the loudest voices in the room on things like meme stocks and the delta variant, and provide our own measured analysis to separate hyperbole from reality. We also explore the jaws opening between economic data and interest rates, the Fed’s conundrum, and stretched valuations for the most speculative stocks.
We explore the cacophony emanating from the loudest voices in the room on things like meme stocks and the delta variant, and provide our own measured analysis to separate hyperbole from reality. We also explore the jaws opening between economic data and interest rates, the Fed’s conundrum, and stretched valuations for the most speculative stocks.
We ignore the flashing red light on the microphone, just like markets have been ignoring any number of warning signs. We discuss the bond market (or lack thereof), explore the conflicting signals sent by treasury yields, and the explore the inexplicable appetite for the currently misnamed high-yield debt. The bifurcation of equity returns between megacap and the rest is discussed, as are the potential effects of the delta variant on supply chains. We also discover Will and Adam were, unsurprisingly, both in high school Latin clubs. Caveat emptor.
We bark again about the continued mania in meme stocks, as well as delve into the inflationary pressures building in certain parts of the economy. The massive flows into equities and misnamed “high yield” debt are also topics of conversation, as are looking to the late 1940s and late 1960s as potential playbooks for what might be a choppy remainder of the year.
Come aboard. We’re expecting you… We make another run after a technology glitch to discuss the Love Boat’s star-crossed investors, the knife-sharpening industry, and the strange dichotomy between market complacency as a whole versus the mania around retail trading in meme stocks. From there, we delve into a discussion of inflation as reflected in things like lumber and labor. We then debate how a trade can be both right and wrong concurrently and why capital allocation matters for companies in secular decline.
Will and Adam delve into the return of meme-stock mania and address listener feedback vis-à-vis valuations and geese. They also discuss the circular logic of inflation versus expectations, how the market interprets this, and how the real impact of inflation is often mismeasured, using candy bar sizes. No free samples of a candy line-up will be provided.
Will and Adam explore human overconfidence, be it in fighting an animal, like a goose, or with regard to investing. We spend some time on the Indian variant, inflation expectations, and the rhyming nature of today’s speculative activities with prior episodes of mania.
Will and Adam review the market’s reaction to further fiscal stimulus, lack thereof to proposed tax changes, and compare the Fed’s largesse with the printer to our favorite confetti-throwing comedian. Obligatory discussions of lumber price inflation and employee scarcity also ensue, as does a more somber discussion...
