We review the tumult in the crypto markets in the wake of FTX’s demise. The markets resilience in the face of crypto, geopolitical, and inflation headwinds is another topic of discussion. We also look at the technical indicators pointing toward a recession here in the U.S., as well as the market implications of a Fed pivot.
Yes, this is the Hank Williams, Junior catchphrase from the erstwhile intro to Monday Night football (American Style) but we are going to be looking at markets through the lens of association football, specifically the World Cup, which kicks off in a few weeks. Yes, this event is typically played in the summer, but since it is being played in Qatar this year for reasons that certainly have nothing to do with unethical behavior on the part of soccer’s governing body, FIFA, let’s get ready for some football, I mean soccer.
In the wake of the release of the Fed’s minutes, we discuss relevant acronyms (FIFA, NATO, FUBAR) as well as a few four-letter words the hawkish comments elicited from markets. We compare the minutes to the tenor of the press conference, the likely paths inflation might follow, and the implications for equity valuations and earning.
Does the market have one? We discuss the recent signs of market life despite what seems like the Fed’s desire to raise rates no matter the collateral damage. We also explore the parody that is risk parity, and the danger it poses to pension funds.
We look at the historically woeful start to 2022 for both stocks and bonds and explain why these coinciding declines are causing stress in the financial system, as well for investors. We also analyze the efficacy of the Fed’s toolkit to fight inflation and how rate increases typically flow through the economy....
Are recent comments by the Fed inspiring or perspiring? We discuss the sub-optimal setup for the European Central Bank, what is helping (and hurting) the case for a reversion to sub-2% inflation domestically, and what it means for markets over the near- and medium-term. Also, public service announcements on preventative health care and meme stocks.
It's the beginning of trading in the month of October and the markets have seen a steady decline. This is one of the more difficult market environments we've seen. Jonathan Ruffer, one of the greatest investors of whom you have never heard, recently wrote, “(i)n the forty-five years I have been an investor, I cannot recall a more dangerous period than today.”
We had some positive feedback on our myth-oriented update, which inspired one reader to ask we theme an update on Ulysses, the James Joyce classic, not the star of Homer’s Odyssey. So, I went to the library and checked out a 30-year-old edition that appeared to have never been opened.
Formidable Asset Management (“Formidable”) has closely followed Flux Power Holdings (NASDAQ: FLUX) as part of our fundamental research; click here for our September 2021 piece.
We look at the situation facing the Fed as the market anxiously awaits comments from Jackson Hole. With student debt forgiveness and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act renewing fiscal stimulus, can the Fed engineer a soft landing? We also analyze the divergence between the favorable technical setup versus stretched valuations. Finally, we recap the most recent round of meme stock mania which, thankfully, we watched from the sidelines.
