Will and Adam explore human overconfidence, be it in fighting an animal, like a goose, or with regard to investing. We spend some time on the Indian variant, inflation expectations, and the rhyming nature of today’s speculative activities with prior episodes of mania.
It came to light last week that I pick up pennies; usually on the sidewalk, sometimes on the soccer pitch, occasionally in the TSA bins at the airport. However, I am not the only one. The revelation took on a life of its own, leading to some friendly wagering on how much one might find over the course of a year.
Will and Adam review the market’s reaction to further fiscal stimulus, lack thereof to proposed tax changes, and compare the Fed’s largesse with the printer to our favorite confetti-throwing comedian. Obligatory discussions of lumber price inflation and employee scarcity also ensue, as does a more somber discussion...
Will and Adam look right in the old lumber yard to discuss inflation and how government stimulus is affecting both sides of the inflation equation, especially as it relates to crowding out in the labor market. We also explore interest rates, the rotation back to large cap despite enthusiasm over re-opening and robust...
Aside from his inexplicable disdain for tea, we love Ted Lasso. For those unfamiliar, the eponymous series focuses on an American football coach inexplicably hired to manage an English football, i.e., soccer team, despite the obvious hindrance of having never coached or played soccer, or even having a basic understanding of its rules.
Will and Adam explore the rebellion in stock markets, including the recent carnage prompted by margin calls on a highly levered family office. The two also discuss the red-hot housing market, transitory vs. lasting inflation, the bond market’s appetite for junk, the surprising strength of the dollar and its effect on Burl Ives’ favorite commodities.
Nano One recently issued stock at $5.35 Canadian to raise a total of $25M. While we were first concerned about this decision, after speaking to the company, we feel more sanguine about the prospects for this capital. Obviously, dilution is nothing we cheer, especially as shareholders of a company without earnings currently. But the impetus behind it, per our discussion with the company, is that its customer base is demanding larger proof of concept deliverables.
Will and Adam delve into grammar and how adding misused words, e.g., supposably, to the dictionary normalizes stupidity and is analogous to the market rewarding investors in meme stocks. We connect the dots on the disconnect between the Fed’s transitory view of inflation versus what the market is anticipating, look at the overlooked impact of the variant in Europe, and discuss other risks the market is currently ignoring in its desire to mitigate FOMO.
Cliches. The investing world is full of them. Wide-moat business. Intrinsic value. Be fearful when others are greedy. Skate to where the puck is going. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
Will and Adam welcome Jennie Ripps, co-founder and CEO of Owl’s Brew, an emerging leader in the rapidly growing hard tea category. The three talk about the history of the company, its pivot to boozy tea, the challenges and opportunities of running a business during a pandemic, and why ingredients matter if you want to drink wise. They put the latter to the test with an impromptu taste comparison, and conclude with an analysis of the relative perceived sagacity of spectacles versus monocles.
